Flygskam or SUVskam?

A recent EIB poll showed a majority (62%) of Europeans favour banning short haul flights; if it only it was that simple to reduce emissions.

Like demonising diesel when it emits less CO2/km than petrol (whilst we wait for zero emissions vehicles to fall in price); banning short haul flights will push those who need to fly short haul into single occupancy cars – where rail is not an option.

This post is a longer version of a tweet below which generated quite a few questions, so thanks to all for their interest and here goes with the sources etc.

https://twitter.com/conormolloy/status/1284367295083618304?s=20

On an individual basis, one person flying to Donegal emits less CO2 than one person driving economically in a VW Golf 1.6tdci diesel. 

My calculations and sources

  • Golf 1.6TDCI at 5L/100km and 3.17kgCOe per litre Well to Wheel (5% bio) is 15.85kg/100km
  • Dublin Airport to Donegal Airport by road is 285km – google maps
  • 2.85 x 15.85kg/100km = 45.17kg x return = 90.3kg CO2e
    • 5L/100km from 50,000+km in my 141 VW Golf Diesel trip computer; your mileage will vary and most will be consuming far more fuel per 100km.
    • Other real-world sources are available on the internet, but broadly speaking you will find your car’s L/100km or MPG on the dashboard trip computer.
  • Dublin-Donegal round trip by scheduled airline service is 58.4kgCO2e – source ICAO calculator
    • One way its 45.17kg from the car vs 29.2kg from the plane per seat
  • Yes, if only one person travelled the entire flight emissions would be 853.6kg but that’s not the reality; cars have an average load factor of 1.5 people (30%) and airlines over 90% or 72 seats x 90% = 65 PAX (or 43 PAX at 60% load factor).
  • Basically once there are 18 or more passengers on board (25%), it is better to fly together than travel alone by car.

The calculation is based on best available data, if you have a better source please comment below and I will amend.  The aim is to illustrate the choices open to individuals and what might happen if we ban all short haul flights where rail is not available.

I am not saying flying is greener than driving, its not; the faster you go the more you energy you use and the more your journey emits. The difference here is in load factor.

Yes, its too simplistic to show point to point when we often travel via other locations, but it helps to make the point clearer, a more detailed Dublin-Tralee journey example below. 

So my key point was to be careful what you wish for when banning short haul flights, if all passengers chose to travel alone by car instead (as I would for work) the unintended consequence would be more emissions, not to mention increased driver fatigue and accidents.

Total emissions from round trip flight is 853.6kg vs lets say (at default 60% load factor) 43 sole occupancy car journeys at an economical 1,942kg CO2e.

Flygskam (shame) vs SUVskam

The IEA recently published a blog “Growing preference for SUVs challenges emissions reductions in passenger car market”

The impact of its [SUV share] rise on global emissions is nothing short of surprising. The global fleet of SUVs has seen its emissions growing by nearly 0.55 Gt CO2 during the last decade to roughly 0.7 Gt CO2. As a consequence, SUVs were the second-largest contributor to the increase in global COemissions since 2010 after the power sector, but ahead of heavy industry (including iron & steel, cement, aluminium), as well as trucks and aviation.

https://www.iea.org/commentaries/growing-preference-for-suvs-challenges-emissions-reductions-in-passenger-car-market

The growth of SUV’s dwarfs the growth in emissions from other sectors including aviation:

IEA, Change in global CO2 emissions by energy sector, 2010-2018, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/change-in-global-co2-emissions-by-energy-sector-2010-2018

Fly vs rail vs EV

I used an old slide in replying to some of the questions on Twitter, amended below with feedback from @CillDar – thank you.  The slide was used in training to provoke debate and get participants to do the calculations, even if only on the back of an envelope.

Corrected distances and updated factors;

Any specific journey will have its own characteristics so we shouldn’t damn or promote any one mode, the fact is all modes have a use to someone at certain times.

To those saying Dublin-Kerry by plane is parish pump (pork barrel) politics at its worst, I’d ask you to consider how working from home can allow workers reside, work and spend their income in Kerry whilst being able to commute to Dublin same day using a scheduled airline. I’ve worked same day by rail to Tralee, it was fun but not very productive.

To those who say their electric vehicle can beat these figures fine, but take a look at Tesla’s range and you will see their electric SUV’s are significantly less efficient than their cars

[Update 1/8/20: Yes, I am anti-SUV, too heavy, too tall and too dangerous unless needed for towing, commercial work etc.. Tesla’s I admire and I’d love, if they just used switches instead of touchscreens, programmable switches per BMW i3 for me for now].

My original point was and is that shaming those choosing SUVs would be a far more effective online campaign for humanity than #Flygskam in reducing the growth in GHG/CO2e emissions globally.

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